Friday, February 13, 2009

Columbia River Revelstoke

This riding has seen few changes in the redistribution.

Norm MacDonald is the incumbent New Democrat, he won convincingly in 2005 with a bigger margin than would have been expected. Norm is a former mayor and councilor for Golden.

Mark McKee is the Liberal challenger. He is the former mayor of Revelstoke.

Wilf Hanni is running here for the BC Conservatives, but I do not see him making much difference in the result.

The Greens have not yet nominated anyone, but I expect them to take in around 10% of the vote.

The two main candidates split two of the regions of the riding almost evenly between them. It is the southern end of the riding that will be a big decider in the race. This includes the Invermere area and then down to Kimberley is about 60% of the population in the riding.

I am convinced that the riding is most likely to be held by the NDP again, but with a narrowed margin.

  • NDP - 6500
  • Liberals - 6000
  • Greens - 1200
  • Conservatives - 1200

This is a large enough margin that this riding should not come into play. The only thing that might make a difference is if more people choose to come and vote that stayed away in 2005, most of these people are nominally Liberal supporters.

No comments: